Comments on: Rebounding and Height http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/ Advanced Stats for Basketball Sat, 31 Jul 2010 18:09:10 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: Eli http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-44 Eli Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:56:05 +0000 http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-44 Ken Pomeroy just posted a piece looking at height in the college game: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=82 Ken Pomeroy just posted a piece looking at height in the college game:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=82

]]> By: Eli http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-28 Eli Sun, 02 Dec 2007 21:28:48 +0000 http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-28 Position may or may not matter apart from height and offensive court location. But I wouldn't throw it out at the start before looking at the data. It may provide something that's missing in just looking at where a player shoots from. For coaching strategy, I think there are some ways to isolate that, though it wouldn't be easy. You could start by looking at the team's offensive rebounding as a whole, their pace and fastbreak points allowed, etc. Or look at players who changed teams like Ed did in the discussion he linked to. I agree that in some sense height is a part of rebounding skill, but I think it's important to isolate it for a variety of reasons. One, we can accurately measure it. Two, we know it remains fixed over time in all contexts. The part of rebounding skill that's separate from height on the other hand could fluctuate as a player works on his game, ages, gets hurt, etc. I think it's important to see how important that part is relative to the fixed height part. The idea of the model is to estimate the underlying elements that combine to produce the actual ORB% that players produce. Once you have that model then you can make better estimates of how the stat would change in different contexts. Position may or may not matter apart from height and offensive court location. But I wouldn’t throw it out at the start before looking at the data. It may provide something that’s missing in just looking at where a player shoots from.

For coaching strategy, I think there are some ways to isolate that, though it wouldn’t be easy. You could start by looking at the team’s offensive rebounding as a whole, their pace and fastbreak points allowed, etc. Or look at players who changed teams like Ed did in the discussion he linked to.

I agree that in some sense height is a part of rebounding skill, but I think it’s important to isolate it for a variety of reasons. One, we can accurately measure it. Two, we know it remains fixed over time in all contexts. The part of rebounding skill that’s separate from height on the other hand could fluctuate as a player works on his game, ages, gets hurt, etc. I think it’s important to see how important that part is relative to the fixed height part.

The idea of the model is to estimate the underlying elements that combine to produce the actual ORB% that players produce. Once you have that model then you can make better estimates of how the stat would change in different contexts.

]]> By: Ben http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-27 Ben Sun, 02 Dec 2007 19:46:13 +0000 http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-27 A couple thoughts: * Why would position matter? Wouldn't that just take into account height and offensive court location? * I would think the hardest thing to evaluate in that equation would be coaching strategy. * On some level, I'm not sure height should even be evaluated. Clearly it's part of the equation but I would combine it with rebounding skill. Everything else in that equation can conceivably be controlled by the coach and context, but height can't so why look at it? Even if we know that, say, Ben Wallace is an unbelievable player for his height, that doesn't help anything in our evaluation of him. A better example would be Earl Boykins - he could be the best rebounder in the league, inch for inch, but that doesn't matter. He's still the worst rebounder in the league. But I think it's an interesting and worthwhile endeavor. A couple thoughts:

* Why would position matter? Wouldn’t that just take into account height and offensive court location?
* I would think the hardest thing to evaluate in that equation would be coaching strategy.
* On some level, I’m not sure height should even be evaluated. Clearly it’s part of the equation but I would combine it with rebounding skill. Everything else in that equation can conceivably be controlled by the coach and context, but height can’t so why look at it? Even if we know that, say, Ben Wallace is an unbelievable player for his height, that doesn’t help anything in our evaluation of him. A better example would be Earl Boykins - he could be the best rebounder in the league, inch for inch, but that doesn’t matter. He’s still the worst rebounder in the league.

But I think it’s an interesting and worthwhile endeavor.

]]> By: Eli http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-26 Eli Sun, 02 Dec 2007 15:35:43 +0000 http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-26 That would be good to look at and could be done using HotZones data. A model of player offensive rebounding might look something like this: ORB% = Height + Position + Offensive court location (jump shooter vs. post player) + Coaching strategy (crash the o-boards vs. get back on defense) + Rebounding skill + Luck + Unknown With some work we might be able to assign percentages to each of those factors. That would be good to look at and could be done using HotZones data.

A model of player offensive rebounding might look something like this:

ORB% = Height + Position + Offensive court location (jump shooter vs. post player) + Coaching strategy (crash the o-boards vs. get back on defense) + Rebounding skill + Luck + Unknown

With some work we might be able to assign percentages to each of those factors.

]]> By: Ben http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-25 Ben Sun, 02 Dec 2007 07:04:35 +0000 http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-25 Something else interesting to look at that I've been thinking about lately is how much a player's role in the offense and from where they shoot impacts offensive rebounding. You look at KG and see that his defensive rebounding is about the best in the league but his offensive rebounding isn't great at all. My guess isn't because his rebounding skill is much different on the offensive end, but because he's mainly a jump shooter (77% of his shots were jump shots according to 82games last year) and takes a lot of shots. If it ends up being important how a player plays on offense, it would be interesting to adjust for that when evaluating offensive rebounders and seeing if anyone jumps up the charts. Something else interesting to look at that I’ve been thinking about lately is how much a player’s role in the offense and from where they shoot impacts offensive rebounding. You look at KG and see that his defensive rebounding is about the best in the league but his offensive rebounding isn’t great at all. My guess isn’t because his rebounding skill is much different on the offensive end, but because he’s mainly a jump shooter (77% of his shots were jump shots according to 82games last year) and takes a lot of shots. If it ends up being important how a player plays on offense, it would be interesting to adjust for that when evaluating offensive rebounders and seeing if anyone jumps up the charts.

]]> By: Eli http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-23 Eli Sun, 02 Dec 2007 04:43:11 +0000 http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-23 Thanks Ed. I remembered you had looked at the different effects player offensive and defensive boards had on team numbers, but I forgot you also looked at height. Your post later in the thread looking at how player rebounding changes when players change teams is something I've been looking at recently for a lot of stats and will be posting about soon. Thanks Ed. I remembered you had looked at the different effects player offensive and defensive boards had on team numbers, but I forgot you also looked at height.

Your post later in the thread looking at how player rebounding changes when players change teams is something I’ve been looking at recently for a lot of stats and will be posting about soon.

]]> By: edkupfer http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-21 edkupfer Sat, 01 Dec 2007 18:30:58 +0000 http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/11/30/rebounding-and-height/#comment-21 I'm pretty sure you've seen this already, but I kind of looked at this a couple of years ago: http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=173& I’m pretty sure you’ve seen this already, but I kind of looked at this a couple of years ago:

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=173&

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